Security of supply needs a new market design
Kerstin Andreae
In order to achive the transformation of electricity and heat supply towards climate neutrality, we need investments in hydrogen-capable gas power plants and biomass plants. Because one thing is clear: in order to ensure security of supply at every hour of the year, we need new power plants that guarantee secure, dispatchable electricity and heat production as partners of renewable energies. It is also a matter of organising the secured power in a climate-neutral way.
The success of the energy transition and its acceptance will also depend on the remaining residual load being covered in a secure and climate-neutral manner. With the completion of the coal phase-out in the years after 2024, the need for new secure generation capacities to complement renewable energies will increase. If they cannot be commissioned in time, this would result in high greenhouse gas emissions, because the longer operation of coal-fired power plants would be the consequence.
Requirements for a secure and climate-friendly electricity supply in Germany
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
The German energy system is to be radically transformed: By consistently continuing the expansion of renewable energies to a share of 80% of gross electricity consumption by 2030, Germany aims to achieve an electricity system that is almost greenhouse gas neutral by 2035. This goal is to be achieved while maintaining security of supply. This article analyses which options are available to solve this task, which potentials they bring with them and which prerequisites must be fulfilled for the transformation to succeed. For example, a power supply based on wind and solar as the dominant renewable energy sources needs a safeguard to ensure security of supply even in times of dark slack periods. This includes sufficient power generation capacity combined with sufficient flexibility options, a reliable fuel supply for the power plants with secured output, and a resilient transport and distribution grid infrastructure. Due to the legally prescribed reduction of conventional power generation capacity with simultaneous increasing electrification, without suitable countermeasures a gap will open up between the amount of secured capacity and the peak load to be expected in the grid. To secure the power supply, an expansion of gas-fired power plant capacity is necessary.
Life cycle of the digital twin – From agile engineering to networked operation
Johanna Kiesel
The term twin says it all: the digital version of a (partial) plant should always be the spitting image of its physical twin. The reality, however, is usually different. Even digital models become obsolete in no time if changes to the real system, such as a device replacement, are not transferred. The former twin quickly becomes an older sister; the information base, which once contained the – in the best case – entire plant knowledge with a lot of effort and know-how, also loses its enormous value with reliability. Fortunately, this can be avoided – with data centred across disciplines and web service orientation.
Hydrogen combustion and readiness in gas-fired power plants
Erik Zindel, Ertan Yilmaz, Jenny Johansson and Johan Leirnes
Carbon neutrality is becoming a key long-term goal for countries and organizations. However, switching from coal to natural gas power generation and improving efficiency is only the first step towards it. As a next step, displacement of natural gas fuel with sustainable hydrogen (H2) is a viable means of enabling carbon neutral power plant operation as hydrogen combustion produces no CO2. Additionally, blending natural gas and hydrogen can substantially lower carbon emissions and provide a steady reduction of emissions as the hydrogen portion in the fuel is continuously increased over time. Substituting natural gas with hydrogen over time means that investments in gas power plants today will have long-term viability. In the long-term, hydrogen fueled gas turbines and combined cycle power plants will enable a fully decarbonized power system, where renewable energy provides the backbone of all energy consumed, and the combined and simple cycle power plants provides the residual load for periods of low renewable energy production as well as enabling large scale, seasonal storage of renewable electricity.
Innovative and safe hydrogen valve technology for industrial thermoprocess applications and H2 mixed gases
Uwe Krabbe, Jan Schröder and Jürgen Wolko
The hydrogen hype continues at an unbroken pace. The first projects to investigate the behaviour of existing plants and new plants have already been started and the necessary control and quick-acting valves installed. The demands on the materials with regard to service life and external leak tightness are high as well as regulatory requirements. These challenges can only be met with new innovative solutions. This article provides an overview of the materials used and the types of valves for hydrogen applications. This is followed by an examination of the valves and valve systems designed for hydrogen applications. Finally, the requirements for the respective valves are explained by means of application examples for hydrogen.
Methods of the Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) for the Safety Assessment of Plants
Bert Geyer, Manuela Jopen, Thomas Schimpfke, Burkhard Forell and Frank Michel
The article gives an overview of GRS methods for the safety assessment of plants. By means of examples, it is shown how elaborated methods for the assessment of nuclear facilities are successfully applied in an adapted form for non-nuclear facilities. The focus of the presentation is on issues related to ensuring the integrity of technical facilities. In addition, possible hazard analyses in the event of an assumed loss of integrity are also discussed.
How efficient can hydrogen be?
Challenges of holistic efficiency assessment and optimisation
Natascha Eggers, Torsten Birth and Antonio Hurtado
Hydrogen offers great potential for the cross-sectoral decarbonisation through power-to-gas technologies that is necessary for climate policy. However, studies show that the planned expansion of electrolysis technologies according to current future scenarios will not be sufficient to produce sufficient quantities of hydrogen. One way to meet this challenge is to optimise electrolysis technologies, which would increase efficiency and at the same time increase hydrogen yield. This approach raises the question of the limit of optimisability. A model to represent an idealised reference process for water electrolysis is presented and discussed. The reference model has the potential of identifying the optimum based on applicable laws of nature and the current state of the art, which can be used as a basis for the process engineering design of an electrolysis cell. Furthermore, it enables the real-time evaluation of the operation of an electrolysis cell and thus the investigation of degradation effects.
IT Security for KRITIS
Data protection = disaster prevention
Christian Stüble
When critical infrastructures (CRITIS) are attacked by hackers, the consequences can be dramatic. But while data centres often resemble high-security vaults, switching commands of railway companies, energy suppliers or waterworks, for example, can be easily manipulated. If these companies want to protect themselves from attacks with serious consequences, they should rely on encryption technologies „Made in Germany“.
Global Carbon Market hits record € 865 bn in 2022 despite fewer transactions
Yan Qin, Tatiana Suarez Lopez, Maria Kolos, Luyue Tan, Yoko Nobuoka and Lisa Zelljadt
The value of global carbon markets reached a record 865 billion € last year despite 20 percent fewer transactions according to Refinitiv Carbon Research. Prices in the world’s major carbon markets were higher than ever in 2022 leading to a 14 percent turnover increase from the €762 bn realized in 2021. EU emission allowances averaged above 80 €/t – 50 percent higher than in 2021. The global geopolitical and economic instability of 2022 that affected all energy-related markets did not spare voluntary carbon trading.
The geostrategic challenges of hydrogen
Enerdata
Hydrogen is seen by many as an effective solution to decarbonise polluting sectors. Many countries have made this energy vector a central element of their energy transition strategy with a view to drastically reduce industrial emissions, storing electricity and propelling the mobility of tomorrow. Renewable hydrogen breaks the codes as it can be produced almost anywhere thus changing the energy geopolitics. European countries want to take part in this green revolution and have announced major investments, such as France with € 7 B by 2030. The race to master this industry will include Japan, China, South Korea, and the United States who also want to impose their leadership. In this article, we lay the foundations of what could be the future geopolitics and geoeconomics of hydrogen. As the whole world is thinking about hydrogen, we will try to understand how the hydrogen economy could be and which countries may dominate the market. Finally, we will identify new geostrategic dependencies that could emerge for the European Union and how it intends to deal with them.
Editorial
Kerstin Andreae
Chair of the BDEW Executive Board, Berlin, Germany
Security of supply needs a new market design
Dear Ladies, dear Gentlemen,
In order to achive the transformation of electricity and heat supply towards climate neutrality, we need investments in hydrogen-capable gas power plants and biomass plants. Because one thing is clear: in order to ensure security of supply at every hour of the year, we need new power plants that guarantee secure, dispatchable electricity and heat production as partners of renewable energies. It is also a matter of organising the secured power in a climate-neutral way.
The success of the energy transition and its acceptance will also depend on the remaining residual load being covered in a secure and climate-neutral manner. With the completion of the coal phase-out in the years after 2024, the need for new secure generation capacities to complement renewable energies will increase. If they cannot be commissioned in time, this would result in high greenhouse gas emissions, because the longer operation of coal-fired power plants would be the consequence.
Studies from 2021 assume a need for the addition of around 20 to 40 gigawatts (GW) of secured capacity in Germany. The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action also sees a need for additional secured capacity. However, the reduction due to the phase-out of coal and nuclear energy in recent years has not been offset by the addition of new capacity that would have been necessary to compensate for this.
In our estimation, the required substantial addition of new dispatchable generation capacities cannot be realised in time by 2030 under the current framework conditions. Under the current market conditions, there is no economic viability for investments in such generation capacities. The energy-only market does not provide the necessary investment incentives. We therefore need a new market design quickly to refinance investments in secured capacity.
Furthermore, the exact expansion demand depends on a multitude of factors and assumptions, such as changes in electricity demand (e-mobility, heat pumps), expansion of generation capacities from renewable energies (RE) or secured RE capacity (biomass). Furthermore, it must be taken into account that the question of the necessary amount of secured power plant capacity to ensure security of supply is about covering the highest residual load in specific hours of the year. The capacity or output of these residual power plants (in GW) is relevant, not (as is often considered) their electricity production over the entire year (in TWh).
According to the 2021 coalition agreement, the Climate Neutral Electricity System Platform is to present a proposal for “a new electricity market design”. In our view, the aim must be to arrive at results as early as during 2023, which must quickly lead to an operational investment framework so that investment decisions for power plants can be made on a clear legal basis. A capacity mechanism, above all, could be considered for this purpose. BDEW is currently looking into criteria that such a capacity mechanism should fulfil.
A corresponding mechanism must be worked out by the end of 2023 to such an extent that corresponding legislation is in place in time to incentivise investments that are implemented by 2030. Time is pressing: Project implementation times in power plant construction are between 4 and 7 years.
A situation should be avoided at all costs that forces hasty action and necessitates the rapid construction of generation plants outside the market, for example financed via grid charges. This would (once again) severely disrupt the market and, through such an additional “reserve”, counteract the government coalition’s goal of lowering grid fees.
As if under a magnifying glass, the war in Ukraine has shown what is needed in order to do justice to the energy triangle, where everything is under pressure: climate neutrality means accelerating the expansion of renewables to an extent that we have never seen before. Security of supply means procuring short-term replacements for Russian gas, Russian coal and Russian oil, but in the long term setting an investment framework for stable coverage of the residual load that gives companies planning and investment security. And affordability addresses the fact that Germany must always keep the competitiveness of its industry as well as the social issue in mind. The 2020s will thus be the most challenging decade of the energy transition.